RICHLAND -- One in six Americans have already been diagnosed with swine flu, and the really dangerous months are right around the corner. It is news like that that makes research being done at Pacific Northwest National Laboratories especially welcome.

Researchers are working on technology that can predict where the flu is likely to hit hardest, which areas are not well equipped to handle a sudden onslaught of the illness, and which age groups will be most dangerously affected. And that's the short story.

The scientists at PNNL have created what they are calling a Pandemic Influenza Planning Tool. It models the spread of a disease through various age groups and geographic populations. It also allows decision makers to carefully assess the benefit of their decisions for different scenarios in advance.

Courtney Corley, a Post Doctoral Research Associate with PNNL, said Monday that manipulating modeling parameters can show city, county, and state leaders how the illness is likely to advance. He demonstrated with a map that clearly illustrates how the flu could progress through the state, based upon population density in various counties. Other factors, of course, come into play.

And Aimee Taylor, an Operations Research Scientist with PNNL explained that the places on the map with the deepest color indicate counties with the highest numbers of flu cases. Naturally, the map changes with time, as the people living in certain areas begin to recover, and residents of other counties are just beginning to get the bug.

Taylor said the tool is usesful for EMTs, School Districts, Counties, and even businesses. "Businesses," she said, "could plan for how many people would be out at one time, and what the depletion in their work force would look like."

The Planning Tool would also give cities and counties a jump start on preparing the public and the media.

Researchers with PNNL demonstrated an early prototype of the tool in Walla Walla. Taylor said leaders there had several goals.

"They were looking at how many personnel do we have in an area that are vital. And if they are ill, what are we going to do?"

The tool demonstrated how essential services can fail when critical workers become ill.

"For example, the city of Waitsburg has 2 people to care for their water treatment," said Taylor. "If those get ill, and that plant needs daily maintenance, that could be a big issue."

Because now, not only are people sick, vital services are jeopardized.

Another concern is available nursing staff and hospital beds. Aimee Taylor offered some startling insight.

She and other researchers looked at the possibility of a pandemic where 30% of a community is taken ill. Benton, Franklin, and Yakima counties all fail the test when it comes to the numbers of hospital beds that would be available if the pandemic hit those areas. Taylor said that is likely because of the population density in those three counties.

Walla Walla meanwhile, fared better. But not much. Taylor pointed at the projection near her on the wall, and said, "You can see in Walla Walla they were close to maxing out, but they were able to handle the load.

As has been reported, the Centers for Disease control has said that one in six Americans have had the flu this season. And that adds up to a total of nearly 50-million people. And the CDC estimates nearly ten thousand of them have died.

Those statistics are more reasons why a tool like PNNL's Pandemic Influenza Planning Tool could be so beneficial should a flu pandemic sweep the globe.

Taylor, Corley, and originating researchers at Purdue University now want to see how telecommuting would reduce the spread of the flu, and how cancelling social events or imposing quarantines might thwart the spread of illness.